Cruz “trollbot” ratings remain high through O’Rourke-Cruz debate surge

Summary: The surge in #TXSen tweets around Friday’s Ted Cruz – Beto O’Rourke debate gives us an excellent chance to compare the features of active Twitter posters from both camps.

We find that Cruz’s top 200 #KeepTexasRed posters continue to skew toward the midrange of “Problematic” (average: 62.83%) on the Bot Sentinel’s “trollbot” scale. By contrast, O’Rourke’s top 200 #betomania posters (average: 26.46%) very closely resemble the benchmark active-poster norm we established last week using all 125 other districts.

This would seem to argue caution when drawing any conclusions about Cruz support based on Twitter traffic. Not that anyone is likely to do that. But the degree to which such activity is influencing potential voters is concerning.

* * * *

Main story: On Friday, Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz met in a televised debate. A day before, a tweetstorm by O’Rourke’s supporters pushed the frequency of Beto-related hashtags above Cruz’s for the first time since Pollchatter.org has been watching.

This surge of activity by O’Rourke’s supporters allows us to compare the two candidate’s most active posters more directly than previously, while comparing both to last week’s “normal” benchmark.

To do so, we examined the top 200 most active posters for both the #KeepTexasRed (Cruz) and #Betomania (O’Rourke) hashtags. The period of examination was from midnight 9/19 through noon 9/22 UTC time – thus, encompassing the O’Rourke tweetstorm, along with the surge of activity on both sides surrounding the debate.

CRUZ: CAST CHANGES, BUT NOT THE STATS

One of the notable aspects was the relatively large number of new entries on the top 200 list of Cruz supporters. Fully 123 of the screen names on this list did not appear on last week’s list of top #TXSen posters.

However, despite that very different cast of characters, the average “trollbot” scores as reported by Bot Sentinel were remarkably static.

Last week, we found that the top 200 most active #TXSen posters (all but five of whom were Cruz supporters) had an average (mean) Bot Sentinel “trollbot” score of 62.9%. The median score was 66%.

Today, we see that the average score in the #KeepTexasRed hashtag in our 84-hour examination period is a virtually identical 62.83% (“Problematic”). The median score is again 66%.

Of the 200 posts, 68 were deemed “Alarming” (Definition: “Our analysis has concluded XXXX exhibits alarming tweet activity and patterns that match a trollbot account. Please report this account to Twitter and avoid.”). As with last week’s #TXSen sample, a total of 156 of the 200 were deemed either “Alarming” or “Problematic” (Definition: “Our analysis has concluded XXXX exhibits problematic tweet activity and patterns similar to a trollbot account.”)

O’ROURKE: CLOSER TO THE NORM

One caveat is probably necessary when dealing with the O’Rourke figures. Because this surge includes a tweetstorm – an online event in which supporters agree to tweet at high volumes, often using prearranged hashtags and tweet content – the period may not resemble a more ordinary day in the Betosphere.

Activity of this kind, some of which is bound to be automated by widely available Twitter tools, may skew “bot” ratings higher than would normally be found (though to be clear, we haven’t researched this).

However, because Cruz’s high-volume Twitter campaign has for weeks relied on accounts tweeting pre-formulated content produced by the Cruz campaign itself, in many cases through “click-to-retweet” links at the bottom of videos, it may not be entirely irrational to regard Cruz’s recent Twitter footprint as a weeks-long tweetstorm.

Keeping these issues in mind, the #betomania figures come out much closer to the benchmark norm we established last week.

That analysis, based on a look at the top 200 most active tweeters in all districts other than #TXSen, over a one-week period, resulted in a benchmark “trollbot” average of 22.23%, at the high end of “Normal.” The median score was 18%.

Today, we see that the average #betomania score in our review period was 26.46%, just a few points into the “Tolerable” category. The median was 24%.

Within this group, three accounts were deemed “Alarming.” A total of 20 were deemed either “Alarming” or “Problematic.”

MANIPULATION UNDERWAY?

As with our previous analysis, this seems to indicate that the Cruz Twittersphere a) varies starkly from the norm, and b) may well be engaged in “trollbot” behavior seeking to skew the perception of the race on social media.

The other alternative, which can’t be dismissed out of hand, is that the Bot Sentinel service or machine-learning model is highly biased against the kind of account likely to support Cruz, whatever that may be. This can’t be dismissed out of hand, and is indeed the subject of postings online by people who claim (and appear) to be real. For whatever that’s worth these days.

A few tests in this regard: noted MAGA provocateur @realDonaldTrump receives a 32% (“Tolerable”) rating from Bot Sentinel. Ted Cruz himself, whose account and campaign is the source of much of the content in the #KeepTexasRed hashtag, receives an 8% (“Normal”) rating. These factors help diminish, but not eliminate, the concern about bias.

For all these reasons, it seems increasingly safe to say that any judgment regarding Cruz support based on Twitter traffic should be taken with a very great deal of salt indeed. The degree to which this activity is influencing actual or potential voters is unknown, but highly concerning.

As an interesting sidenote, this analysis allowed us to see the extent to which scores on Bot Sentinel change over time (in this case, about a week between our two analyses). We’ll address that in a separate post.

As previously, we provide the tables with our work below for the curious and the skeptical.

Top 200 #KeepTexasRed posters, 9/19-9/22

	Screen name	Count	Bot Sentinel score	Bot Sentinel category
1	Croatansound	51	57	Problematic
2	bcarter76	44	80	Alarming
3	Pjw20161951	43	64	Problematic
4	maniseku	32	54	Problematic
5	Len21878832	31	81	Alarming
6	LanceDKewley	30	100	Alarming
7	texasfreedom101	27	67	Problematic
8	BubbaJoeBaker	24	85	Alarming
9	BoiseMarineMom	22	77	Alarming
10	MikeDiaz285	22	66	Problematic
11	pmbasse	22	68	Problematic
12	belmahdy	21	20	Normal
13	rrtxmama	21	36	Tolerable
14	smartgirls4gop	20	72	Problematic
15	GoldnemovesGold	19	78	Alarming
16	Lisa22545183	18	77	Alarming
17	Texan2A	18	57	Problematic
18	Sgroberts121657	18	63	Problematic
19	lisamichelle20	18	80	Alarming
20	PamelaP87728591	18	65	Problematic
21	TCruzCrew	18	62.83	Imputed
22	Darkman3500	17	73	Problematic
23	SXSWUTLOL	17	57	Problematic
24	FriendlyJMC	16	62	Problematic
25	Dr_Nahil	16	59	Problematic
26	Patriot_Girl_TX	16	68	Problematic
27	MalsLAW	16	75	Alarming
28	OrlandoandresM	15	43	Tolerable
29	kbhlmh	15	50	Problematic
30	GaryWil16118163	15	100	Alarming
31	Jar_smith	15	78	Alarming
32	jearuiz	15	95	Alarming
33	BeverlyConserv1	14	72	Problematic
34	LindaRoyer1	14	63	Problematic
35	BadgerSuperhawk	14	51	Problematic
36	LibertysArmyJr	14	81	Alarming
37	GregBoll	14	69	Problematic
38	tedcruz	14	7	Normal
39	minawyonwheatle	14	88	Alarming
40	pononzu	14	77	Alarming
41	EFrazier512	14	75	Alarming
42	JimLoCascio84	14	51	Problematic
43	SusanABriggs6	14	49	Tolerable
44	TheDonaldwin	14	0	Normal
45	Blackdi51264299	14	80	Alarming
46	FreeCapitalism	14	29	Tolerable
47	rhondamint	14	50	Problematic
48	paulaledfordwa1	14	39	Tolerable
49	LynnieLorenz	14	75	Alarming
50	Dlw20161950	13	22	Normal
51	TheresaSalter1	13	100	Alarming
52	marjo219	13	44	Tolerable
53	Annette41000199	13	82	Alarming
54	Mariatweets3	13	93	Alarming
55	JoeBiala	13	63	Problematic
56	Freedomtoroam1	13	54	Problematic
57	zopitedaniel	13	35	Tolerable
58	keramirez	13	81	Alarming
59	BaberSis	13	77	Alarming
60	SnowLover814	13	65	Problematic
61	michelM1818	13	62.83	Imputed
62	KayQuirk1	13	47	Tolerable
63	TRUMP4ISRAEL	13	48	Tolerable
64	pattygilli	13	69	Problematic
65	kathyfisher10	13	63	Problematic
66	ChgocadChic	13	79	Alarming
67	Angelemichelle	13	30	Tolerable
68	tracy_texas6	13	81	Alarming
69	pwirish	13	68	Problematic
70	capitolwhip	12	29	Tolerable
71	StevenBaldwin13	12	77	Alarming
72	JTS_1957	12	58	Problematic
73	All100Senators	12	0	Normal
74	michael2u22	12	66	Problematic
75	A2ZPlus1	12	37	Tolerable
76	J_Wade_Miller	12	25	Tolerable
77	kasmouse	12	70	Problematic
78	AnilNS425	12	60	Problematic
79	LindaMo60594098	12	25	Tolerable
80	MarcyWin4D	12	76	Alarming
81	LucyKnows1	12	68	Problematic
82	goptejana	12	53	Problematic
83	DeeHill77	12	73	Problematic
84	ChantellEvon3	12	52	Problematic
85	smu_mustangs11	12	33	Tolerable
86	paphotog	12	78	Alarming
87	Catherineannmc4	12	80	Alarming
88	WTPatty	12	57	Problematic
89	Saint_Obama	12	67	Problematic
90	BeeNewsDaily	12	20	Normal
91	orejitagirl	12	0	Normal
92	PRButterfly007	11	67	Problematic
93	Djwiseass	11	43	Tolerable
94	Jojoinguette	11	83	Alarming
95	nancy73gg	11	81	Alarming
96	TexasteaPeggy	11	59	Problematic
97	PatrioticCindy	11	60	Problematic
98	sheron4700	11	84	Alarming
99	RobertS30289919	11	66	Problematic
100	WhstleBritches	11	85	Alarming
101	YockeyWendy	11	87	Alarming
102	Jim_Peoples_	11	53	Problematic
103	thathad2hurt	11	63	Problematic
104	usajustice4all	11	63	Problematic
105	sherrysue66	11	61	Problematic
106	NanaOxford	11	47	Tolerable
107	Steelbutterfly	11	54	Problematic
108	THETXEMBASSY	11	73	Problematic
109	TXSVIKING	11	41	Tolerable
110	KonniBurton	11	15	Normal
111	MBOKSR_MAGA	11	72	Problematic
112	ambinc1	11	44	Tolerable
113	thomasj17431826	11	74	Problematic
114	GernertLynn	11	40	Tolerable
115	mariewmcclellan	11	92	Alarming
116	RWDiogo	11	81	Alarming
117	afsanehbehnia	11	62.83	Imputed
118	SheilaH78174315	11	65	Problematic
119	sixthgentexan	11	27	Tolerable
120	WyverShago	11	59	Problematic
121	grainofsand2020	11	75	Alarming
122	sisterwash65	11	36	Tolerable
123	lynn_weiser	10	75	Alarming
124	RebeccaFaussett	10	92	Alarming
125	cat25RIII2	10	73	Problematic
126	jrsdoor_john	10	75	Alarming
127	mollyday15	10	57	Problematic
128	isupporttrump45	10	60	Problematic
129	m_mmilling	10	89	Alarming
130	PaulRog52896828	10	92	Alarming
131	saiwarlord	10	77	Alarming
132	dweissgarber	10	25	Tolerable
133	Denise75384378	10	85	Alarming
134	Timothy26396065	10	58	Problematic
135	lorik_maga18	10	76	Alarming
136	KathyTu57558497	10	65	Problematic
137	Tea4TeX	10	74	Problematic
138	ToniS7575	10	86	Alarming
139	TexasTrumpGirl	10	63	Problematic
140	sudischuricht	10	97	Alarming
141	tkinder	10	34	Tolerable
142	JESUSFALFONSO1	10	86	Alarming
143	TheSentinel476	10	72	Problematic
144	pmswolfy	10	65	Problematic
145	Bandit2585	10	59	Problematic
146	mdr651	10	75	Alarming
147	instiches1	10	100	Alarming
148	princesssofpwr	10	52	Problematic
149	007cigarjoe	10	88	Alarming
150	caitie1877	10	73	Problematic
151	UPTOWNGIRL2008	10	88	Alarming
152	Lindar52Rowe	10	64	Problematic
153	Al_Nimer	10	32	Tolerable
154	RosieAndujar	10	89	Alarming
155	ghostrider050	9	71	Problematic
156	LisaSmith4680	9	82	Alarming
157	crocboy	9	61	Problematic
158	aranom12	9	60	Problematic
159	In66gal	9	78	Alarming
160	mitchandjen4440	9	73	Problematic
161	SlawsonKari	9	51	Problematic
162	pearly2004	9	78	Alarming
163	Drbob444	9	64	Problematic
164	SandraKayWard5	9	70	Problematic
165	DrSueDVM	9	51	Problematic
166	rgmusmc	9	81	Alarming
167	exhaultGod	9	55	Problematic
168	ibsharkbait	9	58	Problematic
169	DRADAIV	9	68	Problematic
170	pedsscrub	9	57	Problematic
171	nathan67157474	9	83	Alarming
172	BennytheKite	9	21	Normal
173	payalsmith	9	81	Alarming
174	1944jnewell	9	34	Tolerable
175	RidgeRunnerKY	9	87	Alarming
176	trump_group	9	72	Problematic
177	TX_Star_Patriot	9	28	Tolerable
178	NRA_4ME	9	75	Alarming
179	CruzControl2018	9	49	Tolerable
180	RLiberalskiddin	9	70	Problematic
181	TexianRising	9	41	Tolerable
182	AdamlCitizen	9	49	Tolerable
183	Rubysayzz	9	0	Normal
184	210GOPTEJANA	9	49	Tolerable
185	MargoBFredeman	9	55	Problematic
186	DarleneHBrook	9	45	Tolerable
187	Vfigi1	9	95	Alarming
188	chris056667	9	58	Problematic
189	RachelSuperEli1	9	47	Tolerable
190	lolli_logan	9	86	Alarming
191	AmericaFirst072	9	76	Alarming
192	zonic_tom	9	66	Problematic
193	stefilassiter	9	91	Alarming
194	roses12411	9	83	Alarming
195	southernlady111	9	77	Alarming
196	TexFoodie	9	64	Problematic
197	realshaynes2016	9	70	Problematic
198	Nancy99881612	9	68	Problematic
199	crhtx	9	86	Alarming
200	OldhessL	9	0	Normal
	Average (mean)		62.83
	Median		66

 

Top 200 #betomania posters, 9/17-9/22

	Screen name	count	Bot Sentinel Score	Bot Sentinel category
1	StormResist	301	12	Normal
2	SallyDeal4	105	50	Problematic
3	ybbkaren	104	39	Tolerable
4	archeology_girl	88	12	Normal
5	BearmanShannon	78	22	Normal
6	InSpiteOfTrump	75	4	Normal
7	Tony_Glorioso	70	26.46	Imputed
8	Italoantcarol11	67	8	Normal
9	D_Ericson	65	23	Normal
10	Maggiemclean35	62	15	Normal
11	oddvice	53	24	Normal
12	GayleErmadean	50	32	Tolerable
13	catikins9	46	17	Normal
14	lejurich1	44	27	Tolerable
15	Augustus709	44	14	Normal
16	azredsoxfan65	43	21	Normal
17	AryaResists	42	17	Normal
18	Unconquerable	41	6	Normal
19	Sylverdollar123	40	43	Tolerable
20	bonesfanancy	37	32	Tolerable
21	AUdebm	36	4	Normal
22	Zen_Soul	36	53	Problematic
23	OutOfYourLMNt	35	59	Problematic
24	mippy56	33	32	Tolerable
25	dizzle5000	31	18	Normal
26	stshinn	29	42	Normal
27	diannemando	29	34	Tolerable
28	ArtistsPo	29	22	Normal
29	NancyAl90267693	28	16	Normal
30	aliminish	27	17	Normal
31	WomanResistorNC	27	15	Normal
32	KapeicaResists	27	22	Normal
33	CaptKatyaSwann	26	25	Tolerable
34	CJPatruno	26	24	Normal
35	MoondanceGiving	25	21	Normal
36	cassiel125	25	16	Normal
37	CeeReedy	25	34	Tolerable
38	MaxineSykes	25	26	Tolerable
39	hh_beee	25	43	Tolerable
40	lrcpt	25	9	Tolerable
41	PantherResists	24	18	Normal
42	LunaLuvgood2017	24	27	Tolerable
43	Spartan2dn	23	29	Tolerable
44	galsgottalaugh	23	15	Tolerable
45	JollyReprobate	23	6	Normal
46	KeithPe33575572	23	58	Problematic
47	MrScottLads	22	26	Tolerable
48	MadelyneRants	22	23	Normal
49	PatAnnTX	22	10	Normal
50	chrisehyman	22	20	Normal
51	TeelaResists	21	25	Tolerable
52	Zane_Shadowking	21	26.46	Imputed
53	lrmorellana	21	45	Tolerable
54	CynthiaTheBaker	21	20	Normal
55	CaptainsLog2O18	21	8	Normal
56	SJW_Resistor	21	39	Tolerable
57	DeWayne_Fulton	21	10	Normal
58	DawnaRickelz	21	28	Tolerable
59	axidentaliberal	20	17	Normal
60	Arriadna	20	38	Tolerable
61	TaoOfPooh	20	14	Normal
62	DC_Resister_Bee	20	2	Normal
63	rowaningala	19	41	Tolerable
64	smif99	19	41	Tolerable
65	munson15fan	19	20	Normal
66	Utleyjacobite	19	28	Tolerable
67	mersmom8	19	0	Normal
68	Prometheus_2018	19	13	Normal
69	ManMet80	18	12	Normal
70	indivisibletxjc	17	14	Normal
71	jplau1	17	17	Normal
72	Jeanlibby5	17	24	Normal
73	RavenRothisPink	16	26.46	Imputed
74	PillsMom18	16	9	Normal
75	michaelbloombe6	16	21	Normal
76	wolflayla420	16	41	Tolerable
77	marieproia	16	45	Tolerable
78	davidbolqvadze	15	0	Normal
79	gskh1237	15	29	Tolerable
80	prettyangeljac1	15	20	Normal
81	susi_debra	15	67	Problematic
82	pamleo65_pam	15	24	Normal
83	UncannyXmen2017	15	6	Normal
84	MichelleMeach16	15	32	Tolerable
85	SanjuanitaEstr3	15	64	Problematic
86	SusanS34891141	14	36	Tolerable
87	kaffeekamikaze	14	26.46	Imputed
88	pgrandee10	14	49	Tolerable
89	rieth_damon	14	8	Normal
90	Clara_Resists	14	6	Normal
91	Sky_Lee_1	14	24	Normal
92	ZodLyta	14	32	Tolerable
93	NatCookResists	14	18	Normal
94	erichards24	14	37	Tolerable
95	HeyIrish	14	34	Tolerable
96	Wipapa5	14	28	Tolerable
97	WillowResist	13	30	Tolerable
98	jill4house	13	5	Normal
99	Archimedes2020	13	14	Normal
100	JohnZiegler2017	13	0	Normal
101	ZB406	13	28	Tolerable
102	DipFreshiest	13	24	Normal
103	sharon_walla	13	28	Tolerable
104	MatthewWolfff	13	36	Tolerable
105	ellievan65	13	4	Normal
106	judy_kaye62	13	36	Tolerable
107	HMeemaw	13	30	Tolerable
108	411elm	13	17	Normal
109	DeepInTheHills	13	29	Tolerable
110	arrika	13	5	Normal
111	elizabe79251262	13	23	Normal
112	rutahill	13	38	Tolerable
113	perradelnorte	13	18	Normal
114	elizabe57280924	13	30	Tolerable
115	MatthewCronin9	13	12	Normal
116	VckyM	13	48	Tolerable
117	BonesResists	13	20	Normal
118	brayman_ss	12	0	Normal
119	MaryKeithBare1	12	33	Tolerable
120	Gottadance64	12	22	Normal
121	mimizelman	12	11	Normal
122	Gregg_Mack	12	41	Tolerable
123	ProbablyMortal	12	11	Normal
124	MarioVasquez131	12	83	Alarming
125	TexGal956	12	49	Tolerable
126	Simplycee	12	23	Normal
127	therealwombat1	12	27	Tolerable
128	LettaRose	12	29	Tolerable
129	dyavorsk	12	53	Problematic
130	lokimaros	12	12	Normal
131	PolitiTwitch	12	24	Normal
132	VABlueBelle18	12	15	Normal
133	elynnhardi	12	26.46	Imputed
134	CindyNance2	12	8	Normal
135	TottenBill	12	0	Normal
136	ellevogueandme	12	26.46	Imputed
137	knittinginny	12	42	Tolerable
138	katpeck1950	12	23	Normal
139	lpont117	12	52	Problematic
140	demandchangenow	12	47	Tolerable
141	kimberlydawnb	12	6	Normal
142	buffster76	12	31	Tolerable
143	TexanTruth42	12	29	Tolerable
144	manfredi155	12	0	Normal
145	tooldtobehere	12	28	Tolerable
146	Bellatrixx2018	12	29	Tolerable
147	BrokenLiberal	12	24	Normal
148	CindyWard731	12	74	Problematic
149	EqualVoteLocal	12	3	Normal
150	JaxDeeDee	12	10	Normal
151	jodell1002	12	22	Normal
152	AlwaysBlueinTx	12	26	Tolerable
153	StringToTheMax	12	47	Tolerable
154	pergolaman	11	53	Problematic
155	Saracino_33	11	36	Tolerable
156	Glen_Barrera	11	0	Normal
157	AllenWeiser58	11	26.46	Imputed
158	Trumpet1984	11	10	Normal
159	Kiwiheather	11	15	Normal
160	BlueSade7	11	41	Tolerable
161	RitaThaQueen	11	44	Tolerable
162	dew231234	11	64	Problematic
163	StephH_AZ	11	4	Normal
164	phyllis_tebo	11	66	Problematic
165	SidelinedBuddah	11	17	Normal
166	hester_hen	11	0	Normal
167	laurapedirose	11	59	Problematic
168	robert_veres	11	10	Normal
169	resistt_rump	11	32	Tolerable
170	KimberlyBozman	11	29	Tolerable
171	nemack007	11	37	Tolerable
172	pampresley	11	56	Problematic
173	EzraBridger2018	11	26.46	Imputed
174	paperrosie53	11	19	Normal
175	CadetFoster2017	11	10	Normal
176	LaSa78741	11	38	Tolerable
177	DVanHook822	11	66	Problematic
178	mabbster	10	39	Tolerable
179	krayoncolorz	10	13	Normal
180	SnowBiAuthor	10	11	Normal
181	Mpulsiv19	10	24	Normal
182	northernstar171	10	25	Tolerable
183	Mstyc	10	24	Normal
184	SwannCarinda	10	26	Tolerable
185	realdebfarmer	10	15	Normal
186	StephSEcologist	10	15	Normal
187	TerryAnderson48	10	22	Normal
188	griffith_lorisa	10	7	Normal
189	teakinrj	10	29	Tolerable
190	Yombe	10	18	Normal
191	d101allen	10	83	Alarming
192	aedaw9i	10	59	Problematic
193	mkpcbeach	10	27	Tolerable
194	KidCasteel	10	19	Normal
195	PeterCamacho9	10	0	Normal
196	JohnVeazie	9	100	Alarming
197	EbonyFlowers19	9	51	Problematic
198	LindaBuckta	9	40	Tolerable
199	bexque1019	9	30	Tolerable
200	kcolaizzo	9	20	Normal
	Average (mean)		26.46
	Median		24

NOTE: A small number of accounts in both populations could not be assigned scores by Bot Sentinel’s service. In these cases, we have assigned these accounts a score equivalent to the overall table average (mean), a technique known as “imputation” in statistics.