Current projects
Pollchatter
Pollchatter.org is a window into the way Twitter is being used in the 2018 U.S. elections. It tracks posts in every competitive U.S. House and Senate district, allowing visitors to spot content trends in single districts and across the country, while identifying bots and other frequent posters. We hope this makes it easier to spot and trace the inevitable manipulations and propaganda campaigns.
About us
Fighting data with data.
Mayfly Research is a loose collection of individuals interested in promoting transparency and accountability in politics, technology, and business.
We are programmers and writers, choosing projects based on interest and need. Our common link: the observation that we live in a big-data society losing sight of the values of informational democracy. We want to play a small part in helping push back against this trend.
If you have ideas for future projects, or want to participate, get in touch.
Have an idea? Why not join us?
Latest observations
#GASen: More vanishing GOPers, strong Dem networks (+ bonus bot!)
District summary: #GASen is actually two districts, thanks to the magic of special elections (and non-specific Twitter hashtags). The first is the regular election for current GOP officeholder David Perdue’s seat, where Democrat Jon Ossof is the primary challenger. The second is the special election for well-heeled GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler‘s seat, which is still Read more about #GASen: More vanishing GOPers, strong Dem networks (+ bonus bot!)[…]
#GA-07: The case of the disappearing GOP
District summary: Georgia’s 7th congressional district: An open-seat district where Twitter megaphones have brought considerable attention from around the country. Several high-intensity non-campaign accounts and retweet networks have driven traffic to outsized levels here over past months. But in the last week, Republicans have practically disappeared. Current status: Democrats supporting Carolyn Bourdeaux, a professor and Read more about #GA-07: The case of the disappearing GOP[…]
Tracking potential traffic manipulation for districts and hashtags
SUMMARY: Pollchatter’s “Hashtag warnings” and “District warnings” pages give an indication of which hashtags and districts might be the target of deliberate traffic manipulation. Numbers matter on Twitter. Retweets, likes, followers, networks of influence. But it’s not always obvious how fluctuations in these factors should be interpreted. It’s thus helpful to have a measure of Read more about Tracking potential traffic manipulation for districts and hashtags[…]
Hashtag spotlight: #defundthepolice
Here is an irony of political opportunism. After months of protest, broken families and some real social progress, #defundthepolice is among the top-ranking hashtags in Pollchatter’s election-Twitter watch. However, it’s entirely Republicans driving it. Yesterday’s massive surge came largely from retweets of a post by GOP challenger Sean Parnell in PA-17. Parnell accuses Democratic incumbent Read more about Hashtag spotlight: #defundthepolice[…]
Sept 21 trends: Mourning RBG, taking down Lindsey Graham
Top House hashtags: 1. #qanon: This has shown pretty consistent levels over the last 10 days. In most of its high-retweet instances, it’s focusing on #GA-07, where Democrat Carolyn Bordeaux is running against Rich McCormick, who Democrats accuse of being a QAnon adherent. 2. #txpolitics: Today comes largely in the context of open letters to Read more about Sept 21 trends: Mourning RBG, taking down Lindsey Graham[…]
Sept 17 trends: Hopeful polls and healthcare concerns
Top House hashtags: 1. #wtpblue 2. #onev1 3. #qanon Top Senate hashtags: 1. #demcastme 2. #demcastsc 3. #mepolitics Interesting climbers: #aca – This refers, of course, to the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. Both sides are using the hashtag for their own purposes. The most popular post today comes from Texas 07, where Republicans argue Read more about Sept 17 trends: Hopeful polls and healthcare concerns[…]
Sept. 14 trends
LAST 24 HOURS IN A NUTSHELL: Top House hashtags: #parnellsplatoon #trump2020 #qanon Top Senate hashtags: #endpoliticalcorruption #demcastme #mepolitics Interesting climbers: #maskupmt: This time around, a lament that current #MTSen Senator Steve Daines is holding a “law enforcement appreciation BBQ” in Bozeman, MT, thus exposing police to COVID-19. #americandream: Here, purely retweets of an elderly tweet Read more about Sept. 14 trends[…]
Pollchatter: a reintroduction
This is a reintroduction, a reappearance. Mayflies come out only once every two years, right? Or is that cicadas? Back to you on that one. In any case: Pollchatter is a site meant to help make sense of the bewildering stream of election content on Twitter. It tracks tweets that reference any of 117 competitive Read more about Pollchatter: a reintroduction[…]
A visual overview of 2018’s election Twitter
Summary Election activity on Twitter in the final days of the 2018 midterms comes with bewildering speed. However, a look at the networks formed by the highest-frequency posters in all competitive races show that Democrats and Republicans have different patterns of interaction. Methodology The graph below is a slightly stylized look at the most active Read more about A visual overview of 2018’s election Twitter[…]
Nov. 1 trends: Healthcare and early voting
LAST 24 HOURS IN A NUTSHELL: Top House hashtags: #protectourcare #gopdelete8 #maga Top Senate hashtags: #letsflymi #teamjohnjames #keeptexasred Interesting climbers: #walkaway (9th place House): This is a frequently used GOP (or GOP-backing propaganda troll?) hashtag alleging that Democrats are “walking away” from their party thanks to disgust with Obama, identity politics, communism, etc. Haven’t seen Read more about Nov. 1 trends: Healthcare and early voting[…]